- Adducing international policy shifts as evidence is diversionary and inadmissible
By Ejekwu Chidiebere
“Africa’s strength is not just in oil, gas and minerals, it is in its people. We are resilient. We are resourceful. We are ready.
“The time for talking has passed, now is the time for action.
“Let us create frameworks that encourage African nations to work together rather than compete against one another.
“We must extract value from our oil and gas in ways that diversify our economies while remaining environmentally responsible.
“The world is evolving and so must we. The global transition to cleaner energy is not a threat, it is an opportunity.” Those were the positions of Nigeria’s Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil) Senator Heineken Lokpobiri in his keynote address at the 9th edition of the Sub Saharan Africa International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (SAIPEC) 2025 in Lagos, with the theme, “Building Africa’s Future: Advancing Local Content and Sustainable Development in the Oil and Gas Industry.”
One issue that has been at the center of socioeconomic and political discourse almost in all the countries and regions around the world prior to, and with the second appearance of Donald Trump as US President was the direction of the US policy under the president-elect vis-à-vis the economic and diplomatic agenda that would define the relationship of the US with other countries and continents.
With regard to Africa, the argument had also raged as to what America’s energy, trade and economic policies were likely to be, with the “Pyrrhic” victory and triumphant entry of the Republican President-elect into the historically-symbolic White House. Some opining that Trump’s victory was victory for Africa especially in energy development and economic growth, while others argued that his victory portends imminent danger for Africa, economically and diplomatically. But whichever direction his leadership would eventually go, analysts have always believed that Africa’s energy, trade and economic development and growth, would only be dictated, and significantly too, by the strength, maturity and transparency of its internal policies and politics, besides reflexes that would attend series of its external economic and diplomatic measures.
They have maintained that without valuable, visible, transparent and effective sociopolitical and economic representation which looks, until now, like a cog at the wheels of Africa’s energy, infrastructure, sociopolitical and economic development over the decades, not much development would be recorded across the length and breadth of Africa. This equally means that African leaders must, like the Executive Secretary (APPO) Dr Umar Farouk has always emphasized, prioritize their expenditure by paying considerable attention to all the fundamentals necessary for energy, infrastructure, socioeconomic and human capacity development, or Africa loses out as the race for energy self-sufficiency grows in momentum. “For Africa’s problem,” Farouk says, “lies in its inability to prioritize its expenditure…,” so leaders must prioritize. For “investors can only trust nations that prioritize accountability,” says Senator Heineken Lokpobiri.
Africa is an oil and gas province with the capacity to meet its own domestic energy needs, with much more for export, serving even much longer than many people may have contemplated.
According to several energy industry news sources, and also from Austin Avuru’s (former Chief Executive – Seplat) account during a presentation in Lagos, about 23 African countries have a combined volume of gas reserves to the tune of a little under 600 Trillion Cubic Feet (Tcf), with a daily production of a little above 24 Bcf, and consuming about 13.5Bcf, (approximately half of this daily production.)
Concerning the volume of crude oil in Africa, Austin explained that the 23 countries in view also have total oil reserves to the tune of 118 billion barrels, producing 6.1 million barrels daily, and consuming 4 million barrels daily, while adding the total refining capacity of the 23 countries as 4.83 million barrels daily. And out of the 23 countries, he went further to explain, five of them namely: South Africa refines 800, 000 bbls daily, Algeria brings 600, 000 plus bbls to the market, Libya comes with 380, 000 bbls, and Egypt with 1.03 million barrels, this is while ascribing 1.1 million barrels of daily capacity to Nigeria – and adding them up he says gives the total daily refining capacity of 4.83 million barrels.
As regards natural gas which was once a byproduct now serves almost a quarter of the global energy needs, and analysts strongly believe that Africa is, at the moment, in an advantaged position, looking at the volume of gas in the continent, and the aggression with which countries seek it.
Statistics have however shown that in the next two years or so, Africa’s natural gas production could go flat, — increasing only slightly, from 268 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2024 to 272 bcm in 2025, thus raising an optimism amongst analysts about Africa as veritable energy resources province.
Two key approaches would be required to boast Africa’s natural gas output according to a report from African Energy Chamber. First is the need for gas producers to keep on pumping products from existing fields without relenting, while countries with new discoveries ensured that their undeveloped projects reached their final investment decision (FID) as quickly and early as possible.
Austin Avuru averred that Nigeria, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea currently account for 85% of the total gas output from the West Africa region, “a volume is expected to remain the same throughout 2025.” “After that levels it will gradually decline, to 75 percent by 2030, 70 percent by 2035, and 60 percent by 2040,” (African Energy Chamber). Adding that although these fields are considered crucial for sustained production, the need for new projects to come online was also critical to prevent a stall in output, the report noted.
Discoveries may have been announced in Senegal, Mauritania, Angola, Ghana, South Africa, Namibia, and the Ivory Coast but not much has happened to reflect those verbal pronouncements. Recall that In Namibia alone, Shell’s Graff discovery holds approximately 2 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) – but all these new gas discoveries will remain dormant unless African governments and gas producers come together quickly to forge realistic actionable plans to capitalize on these vast new resources. “Otherwise new hopes will simply fade into the past as yet more symbols of lost opportunity.”
Production from pre-FID projects, from conservative assessment standpoint, is expected to double year-on-year from 2025 to 2029, with a continued gradual increase until around the late 2030s, industry sources have posited. Currently, just over 10% of Africa’s gas production comes from these pre-FID volumes and will increase to over half of the total output. “These volumes can play a critical role in the continent’s natural gas export aspirations, and in becoming a true player in international markets.”
So Africa’s political leaders can tap into these opportunities by moving far-away from jingoistic, profligacious leadership patterns and face the current global sociopolitical and economic realities even with Trump’s current energy, economic and policy shifts that have triggered series of debates and commentaries across the globe.
All industry indicators on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and LNG infrastructure tend to show that Africa’s LNG export infrastructure is truly shaping the future as exactly as the projections and forecasts of the last months. Between the bigger producers like Algeria, Nigeria and Egypt, Algeria and Egypt are expected to maintain their existing LNG infrastructure capacity of about 29 million tonnes per annum (MMtpa) and 12.7 MMtpa, respectively, analysts posit. Nigeria’s plans involve increasing its LNG infrastructure capacity from the existing 22 MMtpa to 30 MMtpa via the Nigeria LNG (NLNG) Train 7 development and further marginally to just over 31 MMtpa via UTM Offshore’s FLNG project.”
On oil, Africa can quickly ramp up oil production to address huge energy and economic deficits staring her in the face. We shouldn’t forget it’s common story that not less than 640 million Africans do not have access to electricity at the moment and even those with access can’t afford it, which also brings to the fore the need for intensification in gas production while optimizing activities around other energy industry resources as part of the transition agenda. Analysts also suggest a doubling of the continent’s internal consumption and refining capacities – the totality of which are now much more than critical for consideration. For Africa must use her oil and gas resources to optimize her industrial manufacturing capacity. “What we have we must keep, what we have we must optimize,” Austin said.
And for Nigeria, exploration activities should be geared toward ramping up oil production while giving her reserves the needed momentum to ensure she achieves peak oil production of 3 million barrels daily, and 30 billion barrels perhaps by 2030. And more importantly, she must strive to reduce her par barrel production cost.
How much of the US presence is in Africa especially from critical energy resources standpoint like gas?
Africa is likely (all things being equal) to take over the floating LNG market any time from now down to 2027 and beyond, so there’s the popular believe that the US operators and contractors have a “leading role” in realizing new capacity, alongside onshore developments.
While Africa is striving to develop its gas for domestic and export markets, the US is striving to look deeper into what it sees as a bigger economic picture in the Nigerian LNG subsector, alongside traditional oil exploration. It is to be recalled that in October 2023, energy research and consultancy group Wood Mackenzie was reported to have stated that Africa’s $800-billion, 20-year upstream capital expenditure program would result in world-class LNG projects in Mozambique and floating LNG (FLNG) in five countries, “presenting substantial gas-driven opportunities for the United States investors, operators, project developers and service providers.”
While American companies are already at the helm of the continent’s booming LNG industry, there is room to grow their participation, particularly in FLNG, which analysts say offers increased flexibility, reduced time to market and suitability for smaller gas volumes. According to Westwood Global Energy, the global FLNG market may be seeing $35 billion in new investment by 2027 – totaling about 18.3 million tons per annum (mtpa) of additional capacity – with Africa dominating short-term investments. This increase in capacity is expected to generate an associated engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract valued at $13 billion. “After 2027, an additional 36.5 mtpa of capacity is expected to come onstream, with an EPC value of $22 billion.”
It was also reported that in Equatorial Guinea, the U.S. operators and contractors were leading the country’s flagship Gas Mega Hub (GMH), which seeks to monetize all stranded gas fields in the Gulf of Guinea to facilitate an intra-African LNG trade,
Mozambique of course is another strategic market for US gas investments, having passed, this writer says, $1 billion in LNG exports market. This is beside America’s ExxonMobil which was said to be leading in the development of the $23-billion Rovuma LNG project, with the final investment decision anticipated anytime this year, “utilizing a retooled, phased construction approach.” With a planned capacity of 18 million tons per year, the facility will deliver reliable, affordable energy to local customers, as well as export to global markets. The company was also reported to be undergoing a study that would determine the commercial and technical feasibility of an LNG regasification terminal to bring low-cost, reliable fuel in South Africa – all these and many more are clear indicators of Africa’s strategic importance, as long as sourcing for energy is concerned.
One of the greatest challenges to Africa’s energy development says Senator Heineken, is access to financing. But as global investment in oil and gas declines due to energy transition, Africa decided to take charge by creating its own solutions – the establishment of the African Energy Bank (AEB) which will also be hosted in Nigeria.
“The institution,” says Honourable Heineken Lokpobiri “has the potential to revolutionize energy financing across the continent by providing funding tailored to Africa’s unique energy needs. This is not just for oil producing nations, it is for all of Africa.
Adding he said: “The African Energy Bank represents a shift toward financial autonomy. It allows us to move away from dependency on foreign capital and external policies that do not align with Africa’s development priorities. The bank has power to unlock billions in funding, accelerate infrastructure development, and secure Africa’s energy future. This is how we take control of our destiny,” he said.
Thus, whether Trump’s policy gymnastics or not, “Africa’s future holds a greater promise. With the right policies, access to financing, and technological support, indigenous operators will be able to tackle larger projects, make new discoveries, and play even more dominant role in the global energy future.”