By Christie U. Omonigho
- Europe must increase its LNG imports to refill its storage gas tanks this year or face tougher energy crisis
Industry forecasts expect LNG demand to reach 630-718 million tonnes a year by 2040, regarded as a higher forecast from the previous year.
Global LNG trade grew by only 2 million tonnes in 2024, considered as the lowest annual increase in 10 years, to reach 407 million tonnes due to constrained new supply development. More than 170 million tonnes of new LNG supply is set to be available by 2030, helping to meet stronger gas demand, especially in Asia, but start-up timings of new LNG projects are uncertain, Shell plc said in its 2025 outlook.
“Upgraded forecasts show that the world will need more gas for power generation, heating and cooling, industry and transport to meet development and decarbonisation goals,” Tom Summers, Senior Vice President for Shell LNG Marketing and Trading was quoted to have said.
“LNG will continue to be a fuel of choice because it’s a reliable, flexible and adaptable way to meet growing global energy demand.”
Energy Window International gathered that China was significantly increasing its LNG import capacity and aims to add piped gas connections for 150 million people by 2030 to meet this increasing demand. India is also reported to be moving ahead with building natural gas infrastructure and adding gas connections to 30 million people over the next five years.
Shell added that there was a growing order book of LNG-powered vessels in the maritime sector which is expected to trigger a substantial rise in market demand to more than 16 million tonnes a year by 2030, up 60% from the initial projection. It is common belief that LNG has now become a cost-effective fuel for shipping and road transport while helping hitherto to bring down emissions, and offering strategies necessary to incorporate lower-carbon sources such as bio-LNG or synthetic LNG.
For Shell, Europe will continue to need LNG into the 2030s to balance the growing share of intermittent renewables in its power sector and to ensure energy security. Adding that the existing natural gas infrastructure, in the longer term, could be used to import bio-LNG or synthetic LNG and even be repurposed for the import of green hydrogen.
Significant growth in LNG supply is already expected from Qatar and the USA even as there are expectations that the latter would lead as the world’s largest LNG exporter, potentially reaching 180 million tonnes a year by 2030 and accounting for a third of global supply.