By Ejekwu Chidiebere
- What is driving the world’s turbulent energy landscape at the moment – economics or geopolitics?
The World Energy Council in the latest release of its publication – The Monitor – says the major current driving change in the turbulent energy landscape today is geopolitics and not economics.
At the 14th China Clean Energy Expo, with the theme, “Practicing the World Energy Trilemma: Energy Transitions in 2026, the Monitor identified geopolitics as the primary driver of energy transition hence the question for leaders:: “Where is the world energy system heading—and will it hold together?” It added that it was no longer about speed at the moment but about stability in what it called “a more fragmented world”.
WEC told Energy Window International (Media) that the survey it carried out to arrive at its conclusion was based on the perspectives of nearly 3,000 energy leaders from over 100 countries, sampled between 24 November 2025 and 12 January 2026. It shows, according to WEC’s statement that even prior to the outbreak of the conflict across the Middle East, the global energy community had already begun to see geopolitical threats and uncertainty as the potentially defining feature that would shape the energy landscape.
It said that in this year’s survey, perceptions around peace and geopolitical risks, trade and supply chain security increased 7.6 percentage points to 62.5%, which also and narrowly outpaced the 4.1-point rise in economic risk and uncertainty (60.7%).
The publication also identified sharp increases in uncertainty around Public Trust in Transitions and System Risk Preparedness (+11 and +10 percentage points from 2025 respectively). “As a result, progress is now seen to depend less on new pledges or commitments by official entities and instead on how energy transitions can practically be delivered in an environment of reduced cooperation and significant constraints.”
Dr Angela Wilkinson, Secretary General & CEO of the World Energy Council, has this to say: “Energy is the operating system of civilisation. This year’s World Energy Issues Monitor marks a turning point. Energy is under strain. The real question is no longer speed, but whether the system holds as trade-offs intensify. No country can steer this alone. We are shifting fragmentation into collective navigation.
“As the world moves beyond adding supply to managing whole systems in real time — it exposes harder, shifting trade-offs between security, affordability and sustainability. And without a shared understanding of affordability, nothing will scale.
It’s time to rebalance dialogue and test whether we can manage and steer the world’s most critical system together.”
The World Energy Trilemma Framework according to the survey was of greater importance ever now, as it would serve as a leadership tool to manage the competing demands, encapsulated in security, sustainability and affordability. Countries according to the survey were also and actively trying to rebalance their Trilemma priorities as geopolitical volatility continues to reshape the transition pathways. It saw global peace and geopolitical risks as greatest in uncertainty across Europe, Asia and North America, while finance and investment risks are most critical across Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean.
